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Prometheus TRACKING - Box Office Predictions, Twitter, Facebook, Sequel
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  (4 like this)
    Colonist
    There have been a lot of references and confusion about the 'tracking' of the film and how that might have affected the marketing of Prometheus. Thought I'd make this thread to clear it up and so that we can 'track' the tracking ourselves.

    According to Box Office Mojo:
    "Box office tracking refers to theatrical box office earnings. Additional sources of revenue, such as home entertainment sales and rentals, television rights, product placement fees, etc. are not included. All grosses published reflect domestic earnings, i.e., United States and Canada, unless otherwise noted."

    Here are the most recent predictions from BoxOffice.com for Prometheus which is for public viewing. 


    image

    When folks on the forum mention the tracking for Prometheus, they are referring to the projected box office take. These projections are based on a number of figures, including Facebook likes, tweets, comments, trailer views and articles. Projected figures will often influence the studio's marketing campaign as they can spot weak areas in interest and also make more focused advertisements toward different sectors.

    As you can see Prometheus is currently tracking for a projected opening US take of $58,000,000 and total $200,000,000. 
    You will notice that since the Noomi viral on the morning of the 16th, the ratio of positive to negative comments/tweets about the film improved from 4:1 to 6:1.

    While these are OK projections for US, international figures are apparently not great and it is mostly deemed to be due to the films R rating and probably kids being confused/turned off by the marketing so far.

    I'll try to get more info on the International figures but until then, this should be very interesting to monitor as the days go by...

    UPDATE:

    Early predictions on Prometheus foreign take comes from Box Office Mojo: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3426

    "PrometheusRidley Scott's quasi-prequel to Alien is a tricky one to gauge on an overseas basis. Sci-fi movies don't play quite as well as fantasy—for example, J.J. Abrams' Star Trek only earned $128 million in 2009. That being said, Alien Resurrection did $113 million fifteen years ago. Using that as a launching pad, Prometheus could be in for over $200 million. It's also important to remember that 20th Century Fox International got Rise of the Planet of the Apes to over $305 million last Summer, which is probably the high-point for Prometheus. 
    Forecast: $250 million"

    Which puts early predicted total worldwide take at $450,000,000
  • TopherTopher  (4 like this)
    Colonist
    "in god we trust - all others bring data" 
    great post - should have guessed someone would be doing social media regression analysis - made my day
    We didn't start the fire.
  • rogue007rogue007  (2 like this)
    Colonist
    I'm glad they made the film and it's about to be released!


    It's too bad these days that so many movies are passed on and not made because it won't bring in the teen audience.

    .... But I'm so happy that nonetheless that this movie is for adults and is being marketed as such. We as adults have to contend with either waiting years and years for smart films to come out while movies like Twilight (vampires sucking c**ks, not blood), and everything being so edited to make it PG13 at least.

    ..... Not even the "directors cut" are worthy these days.
  • xinauxinau  
    Colonist
    Thanks hells, great thread.  

    Are you in the business?
    "If Lindelof's script sucks I will wage my own personal jihad on the man and not rest until the streets are flowing with the blood of him and his children." -- ViGiLaNzA on IMDB
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  (2 like this)
    Colonist
    cheers xinau!

    writer/director (shorts/webseries)
  • NautilusNautilus  
    Colonist
    Actually a pos/neg ratio going from 6:1 to 4:1 actually means more negative things are being said in the tweets.
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  
    Colonist
    Nautilus said:

    Actually a pos/neg ratio going from 6:1 to 4:1 actually means more negative things are being said in the tweets.



    look again. it went from 4:1 on the 15th to 6:1 on the 16th. hence more positive.
  • NautilusNautilus  
    Colonist
    Sorry, did n't realise the dates where in reverse order.
  • kjohnson26kjohnson26  
    Colonist
    There is going to be a bit of statistical error in that data based on sample sizes, self-selection of the tweeting individuals and biases on who the individuals are making the tweets. Its bound to bounce around quite a bit on a day-to-day basis.
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  
    Colonist

    There is going to be a bit of statistical error in that data based on sample sizes, self-selection of the tweeting individuals and biases on who the individuals are making the tweets. Its bound to bounce around quite a bit on a day-to-day basis.



    Agreed. I'm more interested in how these rough statistics are being interpreted by a seemingly increasingly erratic marketing campaign.


    Added update:


    "PrometheusRidley Scott's quasi-prequel to Alien is a tricky one to gauge on an overseas basis. Sci-fi movies don't play quite as well as fantasy—for example, J.J. Abrams' Star Trek only earned $128 million in 2009. That being said, Alien Resurrection did $113 million fifteen years ago. Using that as a launching pad, Prometheus could be in for over $200 million. It's also important to remember that 20th Century Fox International got Rise of the Planet of the Apes to over $305 million last Summer, which is probably the high-point for Prometheus. 
    Forecast: $250 million"

    Which puts early predicted total worldwide take at $450,000,000
  • kjohnson26kjohnson26  
    Colonist
    It would seem the forecasts are predicting a good profit for Fox. That would make it much more likely that Fox will order the sequel.
  • rogue007rogue007  
    Colonist

    It would seem the forecasts are predicting a good profit for Fox. That would make it much more likely that Fox will order the sequel.




    Oh come on, really?...


    Please give a small paragraph on what you think or better yet what should be in the sequel..... And a name for it would be?

  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  
    Colonist
    rogue007 said:

    It would seem the forecasts are predicting a good profit for Fox. That would make it much more likely that Fox will order the sequel.




    Oh come on, really?...


    Please give a small paragraph on what you think or better yet what should be in the sequel..... And a name for it would be?



    A sequel is very realistically at stake here based on recent assertions from Ridley Scott and Damon Lindelof that they want to make a sequel if Prometheus succeeds and have the story worked out. Check other threads for more on that.
  • kjohnson26kjohnson26  
    Colonist
    Scott said he was hoping he could get to work on the sequel soon based on that interview that went up yesterday.

  • xinauxinau  
    Colonist
    Damon tweeted yesterday during the live Q&A that they designed the story to evolve in new and unexpected directions.  He said directly that if there's enough interest, all the story elements are in place to do the next one.

    See KJ's link for Ridley's thoughts on the matter.  He's all but penciled it in to his schedule -- I think it's the 3rd or 4th project on his plate after Counselor and Gertrude Bell.
    "If Lindelof's script sucks I will wage my own personal jihad on the man and not rest until the streets are flowing with the blood of him and his children." -- ViGiLaNzA on IMDB
  • VisionistVisionist  
    Panton_Vel_Nusquam
    Do we know what the budget is by now? Everyone kept repeating the $150000000 figure (not counting marketing) but now I keep hearing 65000000GBP. Which one is it? The film certainly looks very expensive.

    Frankly I'm worried it won't make much profit, denying us further adventures without superheroes. 
    I'm the man who gets to fly around in a helicopter with a gun.
    You call me MUFWIG.
    Mother Fucker What's In Charge.
  • kjohnson26kjohnson26  
    Colonist
    It seems to be in the $150M-$120M range. I don't know if that number contains marketing costs.
  • BonusituationBonusituation  (2 like this)
    Like_A_Boss
    LOL, I predicted $200 million domestic in the box office thread (long since buried).  Nailed it.  I think it will do much better over seas, I said $400 international.

    My thinking was that if John Carter can make almost $300 million worldwide, Prometheus could double that. 
    :P  John Carter made triple the money oversea than it did domestically in the US.
    We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space.
  • TopherTopher  (3 like this)
    Colonist
    rogue007 said:

    Oh come on, really?...


    Please give a small paragraph on what you think or better yet what should be in the sequel..... And a name for it would be?



    Hamlet II
    We didn't start the fire.
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  
    Colonist

    LOL, I predicted $200 million domestic in the box office thread (long since buried).  Nailed it.  I think it will do much better over seas, I said $400 international.


    My thinking was that if John Carter can make almost $300 million worldwide, Prometheus could double that. 
    :P  John Carter made triple the money oversea than it did domestically in the US.


    big difference at least in the UK is that since the film is rated 15, anyone under that age cannot go. You prob know but it's not like US where kids can go with adults. When you factor in families where one adult took like 2-5 kids to see JC, it's pretty unlikely the flick will make much more then $300... here's hoping.

    I'm sure the movie will make money. im mostly curious to see how the positive or negative tweets and comments influence the box office for america after the opening foreign haul...

    I'm sure we in US will be bombarded with "critics are calling prometheus the bla bla bla of the summer" and "the number 1 film around the world!" during that week.
  • BonusituationBonusituation  (1 like this)
    Like_A_Boss
    hellsfoxes,

    Good points, different movie going cultures.  I went to Alien in the theater when I was 14, by myself.  Just walked in.  :D
    We ain't outta here in ten minutes, we won't need no rocket to fly through space.
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  (1 like this)
    Colonist

    hellsfoxes,


    Good points, different movie going cultures.  I went to Alien in the theater when I was 14, by myself.  Just walked in.  :D


    haha so pimp. 

    i was a kid when i went underage to see saving private ryan in a crappy little theater in london. the only other patron was an old war veteran who lectured me on WW2 during and after the flick. Good times.
  • kamikazekurtkamikazekurt  (2 like this)
    Colonist
    i was a kid when i sneaked into Alien thinking it was something related to Star Wars but my horrors were slightly dimmed by Sigourney Weaver when she was in her underwear!  :x  ... little did I know that xeno would constantly be under my bed and in my closet.  

    Blade Runner came around, which was awesome (if only at the time I was lusting interested in Sean Young [a few years later, she looked just as good in Dune]) - of course then, it's such a more different movie. Then I also walked into John Carpenter's The Thing and that too left me with wonderful nightmares and a vivid imagination.  I knew then, there was no return...  there's nothing like a little positive trauma once in a while! :D
    my God, it's full of stars!
  • xinauxinau  
    Colonist
    Just bumping to see if hellsfoxes has any new info for us :D, or see if he can shed some light on the BFCA news... 

    "If Lindelof's script sucks I will wage my own personal jihad on the man and not rest until the streets are flowing with the blood of him and his children." -- ViGiLaNzA on IMDB
  • hellsfoxeshellsfoxes  (2 like this)
    Colonist

    xinau said:

    Just bumping to see if hellsfoxes has any new info for us :D, or see if he can shed some light on the BFCA news... 




    Box Office Mojo posted a lower prediction for domestic take then boxoffice.com

    Prometheus (June 8): If I were to tell you that on the second weekend of June there's a heavily-hyped sci-fi movie clouded in secrecy that's a throwback to a filmmakers' work from the late 70s and early 80s, what year would you say we're in? If you respond "I don't know, because that sounds like Super 8 and Prometheus!" then you get a high five. With the is-it-or-isn't-it-an-Alien-prequel talk, and the outstanding teaser trailer from December, Prometheus has assumed the mantle of "most anticipated non-sequel of Summer 2012" among fanboys, though that isn't enough to translate to major box office success. Super 8 topped out at $127 million—ifPrometheus turns out to be as good as it looks, it will wind up higher, though probably not by much (and it will likely suffer at the box office if it gets slapped with an R rating). Forecast: $145 million

    Which puts total at $395,000,000.

    This page is also interesting in how it compares the box office takes of similar films http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=similar&id=prometheus.htm.

    Prometheus' budget is supposedly $120-130 million.

    What worries me is the Cowbows & Aliens figures. That film only ended up barely breaking even overall and although Prometheus should have a bigger fan base, the R rating could set it back. Saying that, it will definitely make a profit due to lower production costs. Although saying that, the marketing budget must have been hefty. 

    The question is will we see figures to GUARANTEE a sequel or only create potential for one.

    PS: Here is an informative article from the Guardian regarding a UK cinema company and their concerns about the Olympics competing with box office. They hope Prometheus will swing it back. It certainly could effect it's foreign figures.



    Also regarding the BFCA score of 90/100, I checked on an award blog and noted that The Avengers started on 86/100, then jumped to 91/100 before settling on 90. Wherever the 90 came from, it is likely to change at least once or twice more and by that time, we'll have a thousand official and unofficial reviews to pick from. 
  • JonesycatpantsJonesycatpants  (1 like this)
    Catpower
    Thanks for all the informative posts hellsfoxes.
    Jonesy you little shit..you're staying right here

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