Prometheus Forum
We are the Gods now
How much does Prometheus need to earn to guarantee a sequel?
  • HeadacheHeadache  
    Colonist
    Just wondering if anyone Fox-related visits this forum and would care to venture an opinion...

    I'm guessing $350m to cover costs of production, distribution, marketing etc.
  • According to Wikipedia the budget for the film was between 120-150 million.

    I have no idea how much it would take to guarantee a sequel, but I'd say it would be a strong possiblity as long as the movie doesn't wind up losing money, which I don't think at this point, it will.

  • kjohnson26kjohnson26  (1 like this)
    Colonist
    It was said the $120-150M number was only for the actual filming of the movie and does not contain the other costs mentioned. I would think the movie probably needs to make a minimum of $300M to be profitable enough for a sequel.
  • Lethal_MutationLethal_Mutation  (1 like this)
    Colonist

    It was said the $120-150M number was only for the actual filming of the movie and does not contain the other costs mentioned. I would think the movie probably needs to make a minimum of $300M to be profitable enough for a sequel.



    That's not how it works.  You're using very old shorthand of doubling the budget to determine how much money the box office gross is necessary. Before you start, I know you are attempting to take the theaters' cut of the box office gross into account.   

    That outdated shorthand doesn't take into account post box office ancillary revenue, nor the marketing cost of the film.  


  • Talking the numbers...

    1979 Alien:
    Cost to make $11m
    Gross payback $185m... and that was last calculated in 2004!! (That makes bull stock market gains look insignificant)

    2012 Prometheus:
    Cost to make $125m
    Gross payback would need to hit the $675m+ mark before you can even think of a sequel being funded... (so the Ridley/SF team sits and waits)...
    What we do for ourselves dies with us, what we do for others and the world remains immortal...
  • HeadacheHeadache  
    Colonist

    It was said the $120-150M number was only for the actual filming of the movie and does not contain the other costs mentioned. I would think the movie probably needs to make a minimum of $300M to be profitable enough for a sequel.



    That's not how it works.  You're using very old shorthand of doubling the budget to determine how much money the box office gross is necessary. Before you start, I know you are attempting to take the theaters' cut of the box office gross into account.   

    That outdated shorthand doesn't take into account post box office ancillary revenue, nor the marketing cost of the film.  




    So what other ancillary revenue are we talking about? Licensing, music CDs, artwork books?

    And how much profit would they need to make after breaking even?

    I still think $350m would greenlight a sequel; however there's also the consideration that if a sequel is confirmed quickly more people will go to see part 1 of the new mythology.
  • Lethal_MutationLethal_Mutation  (1 like this)
    Colonist

    It was said the $120-150M number was only for the actual filming of the movie and does not contain the other costs mentioned. I would think the movie probably needs to make a minimum of $300M to be profitable enough for a sequel.



    That's not how it works.  You're using very old shorthand of doubling the budget to determine how much money the box office gross is necessary. Before you start, I know you are attempting to take the theaters' cut of the box office gross into account.   

    That outdated shorthand doesn't take into account post box office ancillary revenue, nor the marketing cost of the film.  




    So what other ancillary revenue are we talking about? Licensing, music CDs, artwork books?

    And how much profit would they need to make after breaking even?

    I still think $350m would greenlight a sequel; however there's also the consideration that if a sequel is confirmed quickly more people will go to see part 1 of the new mythology.
    Ancillary revenue = licensing fees, bluray/dvd/download rental sales, misc (everything else)

    When the 'double the production cost' shorthand was first used, marketing cost were  relatively small and there was very little ancillary revenue.  Now, a film's marketing cost is usually a third (or more) of the production cost.  

    Additionally, global box office gross muddies the picture.  Despite all the hype regarding foreign box office, the studio makes a much higher cut of the box office gross in the domestic market (North America).  That's why the US box office gross is generally more important than foreign gross.  

    To know where profitability lies, we need to know the marketing cost.  I suspect that marketing for Prometheus will end up being around $100 million worldwide even with the relatively cheap internet viral  marketing campaign.    We can safely assume that the ancillary revenue  will compensate the studio for the theaters' cut of the gross.

    In the case of Prometheus, it's also about perception.  Since Prometheus is part of a franchise, it needs to surpass the box office gross for Alien Resurrection and the AvP movies.  On the bright side, Prometheus is a critical success.  That may not mean much to individual fans, but it does indicate how well a  film will be perceived after its theatrical run.  This means more ancillary revenue and greater profit potential for a sequel.

    The big question is how much does Prometheus need to make before they approve a rated R sequel.  That will depend on how well Prometheus does at the box office compared to successful rated R films like The Matrix, Terminator, and even the Resident Evil films.  

    My prediction is that Prometheus won't have any difficulty making enough Global Box Office Gross for a sequel.  If the US box office gross exceeds Fox's expectations, then I wouldn't be surprised if they announce a sequel before Prometheus completes its theatrical run.  

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